Clarity Act passing odds dropped to new lows on Wednesday after US Senate put the crypto bill on hold, prioritizing voting on a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations. However, Senators are finalizing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer and sending it to White House for approval.
Clarity Act Passing Odds Fall to New Lows
The Polymarket prediction market shows that “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026” has plunged to 27% on July 29. Notably, this marks the lowest-ever level for Clarity Act passage.
Participants sharply downgraded the Clarity Act passing odds amid reports that Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy cut Clarity Act passing odds to 30% amid further delays.
As CoinGape reported earlier, the US Senate Majority Leader John Thune prioritized Trump’s nominations and the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026. This caused Clarity Act odds to sharply slump due to further narrowing of the legislative window ahead of the August recess.
Senators Gallego-Tillis Lead New Bipartisan Ethics Counteroffer
Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Thom Tillis are finalizing language on a new bipartisan ethics counteroffer in the Clarity Act. They aim to send it to the White House in the “next couple days.”
Senator Tillis signaled that attorneys general enforcing ethics provisions and not just DOJ are among key proposals to be included in the counteroffer. However, negotiations and bank lobbying on stablecoin yield concerns may delay votes.
Despite Senate Majority Leader Thune moving ahead to file cloture for procedural votes, the narrow window isn’t enough to pass the Clarity Act before the August 8 recess. Industry participants claim it is crucial for the Senate to at least begin the cloture process before the August recess.
Pressure for Passing Clarity Act
Despite lobbying by big banks and groups against the crypto bill, many Wall Street firms endorsed passing the Clarity Act. These include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and SoFi.
“The Big Bank Lobby is trying to say that all of Wall Street is opposed to the Clarity Act. That’s completely false,” said Senator Cynthia Lummis.
Moreover, Consumer Technology Association (CTA), the largest tech association in the US, urged the Congress to pass the Clarity Act. It claimed the crypto legislation prevents capital flight and job losses.
“The longer we delay, the more investment moves elsewhere. Capital flows to jurisdictions with clearer rules. America loses jobs and leadership,” said CTA.
Meanwhile, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the SEC is “ready, willing and able” to write crypto rules even if Congress doesn’t pass the Clarity Act.
I am committed to supporting Congress in advancing the CLARITY Act, including providing technical assistance.
American leadership in the digital finance revolution means matching the energy of American innovators with a regulatory framework worthy of them. pic.twitter.com/7JiHDUbLqS
— Paul Atkins (@SECPaulSAtkins) July 28, 2026
While Washington debates federal guidelines, American retail and institutional investors should stick to regulated crypto exchanges in the USA to ensure compliant trading.