All in on Nvidia stock is the position more and more investors are taking right now, and the latest earnings and a fresh $150 billion Taiwan commitment explain why. Nvidia just posted $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year over year, and it did that without any real help from China sales. The stock sits at $202.81, up from the $194.97 level seen earlier this summer, and the NVDA stock prediction from Wall Street still points considerably higher. The question really is whether the China risk Nvidia stock carries can stay manageable, and whether the Nvidia target price analysts have set is still achievable.
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All In On Nvidia Stock, NVDA Prediction And China Risk Outlook
The Financial Case For Going All In On Nvidia Stock
The case for being all in on Nvidia stock starts with the balance sheet. Revenue for the quarter reported May 20, 2026 came in at $81.6 billion, growing 85.23% year over year, and non-GAAP gross margin landed at 75%. Free cash flow hit $48.55 billion for the quarter and $96.58 billion across the full fiscal year, which is also a remarkable number for a single chip company. Nvidia has beaten EPS estimates for 12 straight quarters now, with the latest print at $1.87 against a $1.77 consensus. A trailing P/E of 31.06 and a PEG of just 0.59 give bulls an argument that the stock still trades like an ordinary chip name, even though the growth says otherwise.
Data Center revenue reached $75.25 billion, up 92%, with networking alone climbing 199%. Q2 guidance of $91 billion has $119 billion in supply commitments behind it, and analyst forecasts shown in Nvidia’s revenue growth chart suggest the pace holds into 2027 even as year-over-year comparisons get tougher.
NVDA Stock Prediction And Nvidia Target Price On Wall Street
The consensus 12-month Nvidia target price sits near $305, implying around 50% upside from the current $202.81. Over 90% of covering analysts hold a Buy or Strong Buy rating at the time of writing. Robert W. Baird carries the highest target at $500 and the lowest sits at $180, and that spread reflects how much disagreement still exists over how deeply the China risk Nvidia stock carries should discount the Nvidia target price going forward.
Jensen Huang had this to say about Taiwan, where Nvidia plans to invest $150 billion annually and open a new headquarters by 2030:
“Taiwan is the epicentre of the AI revolution. This is where the chips come, packaging comes, this is where the systems are made, this is where AI supercomputers were created. The number of partners we work with here in Taiwan, incredible.”
China Risk, Capital Returns, And What Comes Next
China is the real concern here, and it’s worth being honest about it. Nvidia sold zero H20 Data Center compute units to China last quarter, compared to $4.6 billion a year ago, and the Q2 guide builds in zero there too. Hyperscalers also account for roughly half of Data Center revenue, so there’s real customer concentration on top of the geographic issue. But here’s the thing, Nvidia still put up $91 billion in guidance and 85% growth with China basically out of the picture entirely, which is a hard number to argue with.
On the capital return side, Nvidia raised its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share back on May 18, 2026, now sitting at a 0.49% yield, and the board added $80 billion in fresh buybacks on top of $38.5 billion still remaining. Net income for the quarter was $58.32 billion, and the company returned $20 billion to shareholders in just three months.
The Vera Rubin ramp, sovereign AI builds across the UK, Germany, France, South Korea, and India, and the new Taiwan headquarters set to open by 2030 all point to a story that goes well past one earnings cycle. That’s also part of why the Nvidia target price keeps climbing even with the China risk Nvidia stock carries still very much unresolved.